It is the afternoon of Saturday 20th June. I’m still getting used to being home after a writing retreat. It’s warm, from my window, I can see trains, trams, buses and cars still travel, it seems like a lazy Saturday.
It is 36 hours since the result of the Makerfield by-election, Andy Burnham got 55% of the vote, Reform 35%, Restore 7%, Tories 2% and the rest nothing.
I made three claims during the campaign.
First, when people were saying Burnham might lose, I said that he would win, that it wouldn’t be close and that, in fact, his majority would be close to 10,000.
Second, when Restore first polled at 7%, I thought they would be squeezed down to around 3.5%.
Third, there was a prop bet for which I wanted odds of 2/1: Count Binface and Howling Laud Hope together to get more votes than Jake Austin, the Liberal Democrat. It was close, but Austin outpolled Binface and Hope by 165 votes to 140.
Still, I’m calling 9,231 close enough to 10,000 and claiming my one out of three. Mystic Andy strikes again.
I feel I need to blog because there are momentous events going on. Entire books will be written about this weekend but we aren’t privy to any of these events yet.
Will Keir Starmer fight on? If he does will Andy Burnham bottle it or challenge? If he doesn’t trigger it does Wes Streeting or Ed Miliband challenge? What about Darren Jones as a Starmerism without Starmer?
The bookies think it’s all over.
| Next Labour Leader after Keir Starmer | Best Odds |
| Andy Burnham | 1/20 |
| Al Carns | 40/1 |
| Wes Streeting | 40/1 |
| Yvette Cooper | 50/1 |
| Darren Jones | 80/1 |
| Angela Rayner | 80/1 |
It could be by the end of next week but I’ve got a feeling there’s more twists in the tale.
But for now, the trains, trams, buses and cars continue to pass beneath my window. It is still a warm, lazy Saturday, and nothing is happening.
Leave a Reply