Andy Dowland

Author: Andy

  • Opinion: Why I’m Not (Yet) Joining Your Party

    Labour Manifesto Launch 2019, creative commons licence

    As someone firmly on the left side of politics, who voted for Jeremy Corbyn in both Labour leadership election, I should be exactly the kind of person Your Party is targeting. With reports of over 750,000 people signing up to the mailing list, clearly something’s resonating. And I’m still hesitant. Here’s why.

    First, who will Your Party actually be for?
    When the vote on decriminalising abortion came up, both Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana supported it. But three of the independent MPs linked to the Gaza coalition—Adnan Hussain, Ayoub Khan, and Iqbal Mohammad did not1. I cannot support any party that allows religious fundamentalism to shape its manifesto. And yes, I consider Islamic fundamentalism every bit as dangerous as the Christian variety. Will Your Party support human rights? If not then that’s a deal breaker for me.

    Second, will it be serious or amateur hour?
    Labour, for all its flaws, has a structure. It has people who know what they’re doing. Reform UK, for contrast, has struggled to build any meaningful branch network. Some of its candidates have turned out to have unpleasant pasts; others are barely known at all.2. They’ve only made the impact they have through ruthless centralisation.

    But Your Party is supposed to be grassroots. That’s great, but it also takes time, money, and a committed team of experienced organisers. My worry is that Your Party may be short of all three.

    And third, what if it actually works?
    If Your Party succeeds electorally, it could mark the end of the Labour Party as we know it. And while Labour has clearly drifted from its moorings under Starmer, I believe the party will long outlast his leadership. I’ve drifted in and out of Labour membership over the years, but I’ve always voted Labour at general elections. I remember the old guard at Yeovil CLP proudly boasting of voting Liberal in 1983; I had nothing but contempt for that attitude then, and I still do now. I’m not about to flounce off just because I don’t like the current direction. I still believe it’s possible to turn the ship.

    But if the serious soft left decides it’s time to abandon it3 then I’ll follow. That’s the heart of Labour for me.

    So I’m not saying never.

    But I am saying: not yet.

    1. The other member of the Independent Alliance, Shockat Adam abstained. ↩︎
    2. I will not go with the fanciful idea of Reform having AI candidates. Acting Returning Officers will have sniffed that out. But there were some that acted purely as paper candidates. ↩︎
    3. Thinking about Manchester that’s Burnham, Rayner, Long-Bailey and Powell. ↩︎

  • Canada’s Blank Ballot Experiment: A By-Election, 214 Candidates, and One Very Long Problem

    The ballot paper for Monday’s by-election. Image from Elections Canada

    Tomorrow, a federal by-election will be held in the Alberta riding1 of Battle River–Crowfoot. This should be a political non-event. The area is rock solid Conservative. The Liberals have surpassed 10% of the vote only once since 1980, and the New Democrats have never even got that much support.

    But what makes this by-election remarkable, possibly unprecedented in Canadian electoral history, and perhaps without precedent in British elections either, is that the ballot paper will be completely blank.

    The story begins with Kieran Szuchewycz, an Albertan citizen who sought to stand in Calgary Heritage against then Prime Minister Stephen Harper in the 2015 federal election. Elections Canada, however, required a $1,000 deposit—something Szuchewycz refused to pay. Instead, he sued the government.

    His argument hinged on Section 3 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, which states: “Every citizen of Canada has the right to vote in an election of members of the House of Commons or of a legislative assembly and to be qualified for membership therein.” A financial barrier, he claimed, infringed that right. In 2017, Alberta’s Court of Queen’s Bench agreed. Though the ruling applied only in Alberta, Elections Canada preemptively removed the deposit requirement nationwide, leaving only the need to gather 100 nominations.

    Enter the Longest Ballot Committee: an organisation that appears to exist solely to torment election officials though I could easily believe the printing industry may be quietly cheering them on2. The Committee exploited the new nomination rules, relying on the fact that electors may nominate as many candidates as they wish. All they needed were willing volunteers to stand.

    They began modestly enough in the 2022 Mississauga–Lakeshore by-election, fielding 34 candidates who collectively earned just 2% of the vote. That number rose to 42 in Winnipeg South Centre in 2023 (1.9%), and then to 73 in the 2024 Toronto–St. Paul’s by-election (2.4%). That last contest caused particular problems; the ballot paper was so long it delayed the declaration of results to eight hours after the polls closed.

    The Committee’s pièce de résistance3 came in the 2025 federal election, when they targeted Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s Carleton riding. With 74 candidates, their names spanning nearly a metre long, double columned ballot. The efforts didn’t affect the result, they won just 0.9% of the vote. But at the serious end of the counting Poilievre lost his seat.

    An actual ballot paper from the Carleton riding in the 2025 federal election. Photo Harry Kusumah Hidajat (CC-SA)

    That brings us to Battle River-Crowfoot. The Conservative MP Damien Kurek graciously resigned his seat to let Poilievre to return to the House of Commons. This time, the Longest Ballot Committee responded with 204 candidates. With the other mainstream and fringe parties, that’s 214 candidates. Even double columned, the ballot paper would be close to three metres long.

    In response, Elections Canada made an extraordinary decision: for the first time in Canadian history, every ballot paper will be blank. Voters must handwrite their chosen candidate’s name, aided by a 32-page booklet listing all 214 options.

    In one sense, this by-election is a safe testing ground. The seat is practically unlosable for the Conservatives, and Elections Canada has confirmed that voters won’t need perfect spelling, good news for Anglophone Albertans who might struggle with “Poilievre.”

    But beyond this peculiar episode lies a deeper question: how do we balance open democratic participation with the practicalities of electoral administration? The Longest Ballot Committee may be trolling for chaos—but they’ve also highlighted the fragility of systems designed for a more restrained age.

    Whether the blank ballot experiment becomes a one-off curiosity or a permanent solution remains to be seen. Either way, Canada will learn something tomorrow. Maybe Britain should be paying attention too?

    1. Riding is Canadian for constituency. ↩︎
    2. The LBC’s spokesperson is a Tomas Szuchewycz, I don’t know if he’s related. ↩︎
    3. See, French, because Canada. ↩︎

  • Where I’ve been: Canterbury Gaming Convention 2025

    The Indoor Tennis Centre at the University all full of gamers. Photo credit Phil Lucas.

    Last weekend I attended the Canterbury Gaming Convention at the University of Kent. I found Canterbury a delightful city and the gaming was wonderful. I played the following Pathfinder Society scenarios:

    • 5-17 Stranded on Yesterday’s Tide
    • 6-01 Year of Immortal Influence
    • 6-02 Rain Falls on the Mountain of Sea and Sky
    • and GMed Quest 25 The Greengold Dilemma
    Playing 6-02 Rain Falls on the Mountain of Sea and Sky, GM Steve, playing with Kenton and Nicola. Photo credit Phil Lucas.

    Many thanks to Phil Lucas for organising the Pathfinder Society events and to Steve, Martin and Jay for running the games I was in. I hope to be at Canterbury 2026.

    Me looking uncharacteristically thoughtful in 6-01 Year of Immortal Influence, GM Martin, playing with Andrew B, Matt, David M and Nicola. Photo credit Phil Lucas.

  • EHRC Approval Ratings: Analyzing the Data

    Photo of Baroness Falkner before the Women and Equalities Committee
    Baroness Falkner at the Womens and Equalities Committee – 11th June 2025. Photo: parliamentlive.tv

    In her latest appearance before the Women and Equalities Committee, the EHRC Chair, Baroness Falkner of Margravine surprised many by this statement.

    We do surveys of opinion into our standing, and I will share one simple figure with you. I do not like words like approval or disapproval, but in the first year of my service, the so called approval rating—people who thought positively about us—was in the region of 35%, and it is currently 81%.1

    81% public approval seemed unlikely to me and indeed it wasn’t true as Falkner later acknowledged.

    During the Committee session on 11 June, I cited data in response to Q2 related to our approval rating. I would like to clarify that these figures refer to our media sentiment analysis which measures the tone and favourability of media coverage about EHRC, not public opinion polling. The latest figures from our media monitoring are:

    a. Positive media sentiment has improved from 35.2% in 2021-22 to 80.6% in 2024-25
    b. Negative media sentiment has decreased from 5.3% in 2022-23 to 1.2% in 2024-252

    Impressive numbers but positive media coverage is not the same as positive public opinion. The likes of the Telegraph, Mail, Express and Sun do not want human rights to get in the way of capitalism. The Telegraph have a particular anti trans rampage at the moment.

    It’s as if the Police patted themselves on the back if criminals thought they were wonderful.

    1. Sourced from the transcript at https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/16043/pdf/ ↩︎
    2. The letter from Falkner is at https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/48625/documents/254825/default/ ↩︎

  • The Rapture

    Tangopaso, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

    Every year, scaremongering posts about the Christian Rapture pop up—especially leading up to September 23rd. So here’s my 2025 version of a post I come back to often, because (spoiler alert) this happens every year.

    The basis is Revelation 12:1–2:

    “A great sign appeared in heaven: a woman clothed with the sun, with the moon under her feet and a crown of twelve stars on her head. She was pregnant and cried out in pain as she was about to give birth.”

    Sounds dramatic. But what it describes, astronomically, is a regular, predictable pattern.

    The Sun appears to move through 13 constellations over the course of a year (not just the 12 zodiac signs), due to Earth’s orbit. The Sun enters the constellation Virgo on September 17th this year and stays there until October 30th, because Virgo is one of the widest constellations in the sky.

    Meanwhile, the Moon moves faster through the sky from our perspective, completing a cycle roughly every 29 days. A New Moon occurs when it catches up with the Sun, and a Full Moon when it’s on the opposite side of the Earth. That Sun–Moon alignment (a “conjunction”) happens monthly.

    In 2025, there’s a partial solar eclipse on September 21st, viewable from New Zealand, parts of Antarctica, and Pacific islands. That’s just the Moon and Sun lining up in Virgo—again, not a rare event. The Moon will then swing around again to meet the Sun in Virgo on October 20th/21st.

    So, yes: the Sun is in Virgo for over six weeks every year. And the Moon meets the Sun once a month. Put those together, and this “great sign” occurs at least once a year, often twice.

    Where did the obsession with September 23rd come from?

    Back in the mid-2010s, someone noticed that an asteroid called 4580 Child (named after amateur astronomer Jack B. Child1) would be near the Sun and Moon in Virgo on September 23rd, 2017. Cue predictions that this was the Rapture. I think I overslept that day, because I didn’t notice anything unusual.

    Since then, lazy TikTokers have recycled that date without recalculating anything.

    For the record, the last time 4580 Child was near the Sun was February 25th, 2025—and it was in Aquarius. The next time will be May 23rd, 2026, in Taurus.

    Want a genuinely interesting date? Try September 29th, 2027: Sun, Moon, and 4580 Child will all be in Virgo plus Mercury and Venus. You can even draw a line between the Moon and Child with the Sun almost exactly in the middle. The Moon will be higher in the sky than the Sun, but you can’t have everything.

    Other future dates with Sun, Moon, and 4580 Child in Virgo:

    • October 14th to 16th, 2031
    • October 4th to 7th, 2040
    • October 10th to 12th, 2053

    But I’m sure, no matter how far we go into the future, someone on whatever replaces TikTok will still be sprouting about September 23rd.

    1. Oddly Child discovered 13 asteroids but 4580 Child wasn’t one of them. ↩︎

  • Misleading Headline of the Day

    It’s a good job that the TERF nurse Sandie Peggie wasn’t being forced to change in front of any male isn’t it.

  • Britannia – the dog that didn’t bark

    So the new set of UK coinage has been announced by the Royal Mint. This flora and fauna themed set look a bit toytown to me but then all new coins have that lack of familiarity, overall they are a nice set. What interests me is the reaction – or rather lack of reaction.

    You see when the move to decimal currency happened, there was an outcry as the old penny disappeared and there was no Britannia depicted in the new range. Quickly the original 50p design of the full Royal coat of arms was ditched (eventually being released as a commemorative in 2013) and a new design with Britannia seated released to replace the 10-shilling note in 1969.

    40 years is a long time for a set of coins so in 2008 the shield definitives again, again there was no place for Britannia, the new 50p formed the point of the shield with segments of the Irish harp and English leopards. Cue outcry from the usual subjects, the Daily Mail calling it an embarrassment to Gordon Brown. William Hague was even stronger, proclaiming “It is all too typical of a Government with an inadequate sense of British pride and an ignorance of history to want to do away with such a symbol.”1

    The Mail’s petition did not result in another change of mind and Britannia disappeared until George Osborne to some fanfare brought the image back to the little seen definitive £2 coin in 20152

    Now, as you will have noticed, there’s no Britannia to be seen in the new set, the £2 has been replaced by a four-nation selection of rose, thistle, daffodil and shamrock. So any shock from the Mail or the Conservative Party? Absolutely not a squeak. The Mail’s story is basically just a copy/paste from the Royal Mint’s press releases, gushing about King Charles’ love of nature.3

    So, was the furore back in 1968 and 2008 just a concocted story to attack Labour governments? You might think that, but I couldn’t possibly comment.

    1. As reported by the Daily Mail on 2nd February 2008. ↩︎
    2. Somewhat tempered when the Mail discovered the model for the new Britannia was slightly based on a Polish immigrant. ↩︎
    3. It would be easy to attribute the capercaillie’s plight to the fact the King’s father shot so many of them, but they were only reintroduced to Scotland after their first extinction from these Isles so that people could carry on shooting them. ↩︎

  • Kinnock myths

    There’s a meme going around that Jeremy Corbyn is somehow being obstructive by staying on as Labour Party leader while we get on with electing a new leader and deputy. So we get uninformed people like this pop up on Twitter.

    Lloyd’s entitled to his opinion, but not his own facts. I’m older than him and remember the 1992 election painfully well. The election was Thursday 9th April; Kinnock didn’t even announce his resignation until Tuesday 13th April so Jeremy’s already quicker off the marks. Kinnock then remained leader until John Smith won on Saturday 18th July, exactly 100 days later.

    It made sense for Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband to step down immediately because they both had a deputy who was willing and able to hold the fort during the leadership election. Now, the deputy post is vacant so if Jeremy did want to walk away now the NEC would have to meet to put one of the Shadow Cabinet in as acting leader. That could not be one of the leadership contenders as that would be unfair and who else would want that thankless job?

    Facing a triumphal Boris Johnson at the dispatch box for Queen’s Speech and weekly PMQs will be awful for Corbyn to deal with, we should be thankful to him for performing this last service to the Labour Party.

  • What do we do now?

    For some reason, I’m attending three meetings looking at what should the Labour movement do from here. We should be having a proper period of reflection but life doesn’t stop and neither can we. I’ll post considered thoughts from all three over the weekend but first thanks to Red Pepper for organising the first, attended by Zarah Sultana, newly elected Labour MP for Coventry South, Hilary Wainwright, Brian Eno and Dawn Foster.

  • A tiny swing?

    So Jess Phillips has penned an article for the Guardian/Observer on the lessons to learn from the election. It’s a thinly veiled launch of her leadership bid and to be honest there’s not that much there to disagree with, it’s all very generic. But one paragraph and one line in particular made me pause.

    My constituents don’t mind that we might disagree – they appreciate above all else a straightforward approach. I can’t help but think that the fact that we saw only a tiny swing away from Labour in my seat was because of our ability to disagree well, with good humour and a shared vernacular.

    Jess Phillips – The Guardian website 14th December 2019
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/14/working-class-voters-didnt-trust-labour-jess-phillips

    That’s a data claim and one that if true would elevate Jess Phillips’ claim to support. After all, I voted for Tony Blair in 1994 mainly because of his success in increasing the membership of Sedgefield CLP. So is it true?

    Screenshot from Wikipedia
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birmingham_Yardley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

    Labour down 2.3% and Conservative up 10.0%, that’s a swing of 6.2% away from Labour to Conservative. Nationally the swing was 4.5% Labour to Conservative so 6.2% doesn’t seem too good. But then again the national swing was greater outside London, so maybe it’s good for Birmingham?

    Swings (Conservative to Labour) for Birmingham constituencies and the percentage for Leave in the EU Referendum 2016. Own work.

    So Birmingham Yardley was the second worst swing for Labour out of the ten Birmingham constituencies. But there is the Brexit factor here, the worst ones seem to have the highest Leave. So do they correlate and would that explain Yardley’s swing?

    Swings (Conservative to Labour) for Birmingham constituencies and the percentage for Leave in the EU Referendum 2016. Own work.

    Even on that basis, the swing was worse than you would expect for a 60% Leave constituency in Birmingham. There is a possible reason, John Hemmings, the previous Lib Dem MP for Yardley in 2005 to 2015 stood again in 2017 but didn’t in 2019. Some Conservatives who voted for him to stop Labour wouldn’t need to do that as the Conservatives are now second in the seat and that will have increased the swing to them.

    But even giving Jess Phillips the benefit of all doubt, there’s no evidence that the swing could be described as a tiny swing and some evidence that Jess did worse than the average MP would have in the same situation.